Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Sunlight stimulates release of climate-warming gas from melting Arctic permafrost

Sunlight stimulates release of climate-warming gas from melting Arctic permafrost

Feb. 11, 2013 — Ancient carbon trapped in Arctic permafrost is extremely sensitive to sunlight and, if exposed to the surface when long-frozen soils melt and collapse, can release climate-warming carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere much faster than previously thought.

University of Michigan ecologist and aquatic biogeochemist George Kling and his colleagues studied places in Arctic Alaska where permafrost is melting and is causing the overlying land surface to collapse, forming erosional holes and landslides and exposing long-buried soils to sunlight.

They found that sunlight increases bacterial conversion of exposed soil carbon into carbon dioxide gas by at least 40 percent compared to carbon that remains in the dark. The team, led by Rose Cory of the University of North Carolina, reported its findings in an article to be published online Feb. 11 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"Until now, we didn't really know how reactive this ancient permafrost carbon would be -- whether it would be converted into heat-trapping gases quickly or not," said Kling, a professor in the U-M Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. EEB graduate student Jason Dobkowski is a co-author of the paper.

"What we can say now is that regardless of how fast the thawing of the Arctic permafrost occurs, the conversion of this soil carbon to carbon dioxide and its release into the atmosphere will be faster than we previously thought," Kling said. "That means permafrost carbon is potentially a huge factor that will help determine how fast the Earth warms."

Tremendous stores of organic carbon have been frozen in Arctic permafrost soils for thousands of years. If thawed and released as carbon dioxide gas, this vast carbon repository has the potential to double the amount of the heat-trapping greenhouse gas in the atmosphere on a timescale similar to humanity's inputs of carbon dioxide due to the burning of fossil fuels.

That creates the potential for a positive feedback: As Earth warms due to the human-caused release of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, frozen Arctic soils also warm, thaw and release more carbon dioxide. The added carbon dioxide accelerates Earth's warming, which further accelerates the thawing of Arctic soils and the release of even more carbon dioxide. Recent climate change has increased soil temperatures in the Arctic and has thawed large areas of permafrost. Just how much permafrost will thaw in the future and how fast the carbon dioxide will be released is a topic of heated debate among climate scientists.

Already, the melting of ground ice is causing land-surface subsidence features called thermokarst failures. A thermokarst failure is generated when ice-rich, permanently frozen soils are warmed and thawed. As the ice melts, the soil collapses and either creates an erosional hole in the tundra or -- if the slope is steep enough -- a landslide.

Thermokarst failures change the trajectory of the debate on the role of the Arctic in global climate, according to Kling and his colleagues. The unanticipated outcome of the study reported in PNAS is that soil carbon will not be thawed and degraded directly in the soils. Instead, the carbon will be mixed up and exposed to sunlight as the land surface fails.

Sunlight -- and especially ultraviolet radiation, the wavelengths that cause sunburn -- can degrade the organic soil carbon directly to carbon dioxide gas, and sunlight can also alter the carbon to make it a better food for bacteria. When bacteria feed on this carbon, they respire it to carbon dioxide, much the same way that people respire carbon in food and exhale carbon dioxide as a byproduct.

"Whether UV light exposure will enhance or retard the conversion of newly exposed carbon from permafrost soils has been, until recently, anybody's guess," said University of North Carolina's Cory, the study's lead author. "In this research, we provide the first evidence that the respiration of previously frozen soil carbon will be amplified by reactions with sunlight and their effects on bacteria."

"We know that in a warmer world there will be more of these thermokarst failures, and that will lead to more of this ancient frozen carbon being exposed to surface conditions," Kling said. "While we can't say how fast this Arctic carbon will feed back into the global carbon cycle and accelerate climate warming on Earth, the fact that it will be exposed to light means that it will happen faster than we previously thought."

The researchers analyzed water from seven thermokarst failures near Toolik Lake, Alaska, as well as 27 other undisturbed sites nearby.

In addition to Cory, Kling and Dobkowski, Byron Crump of the University of Maryland was a co-author of the PNAS paper. The research was supported by several grants from the National Science Foundation.

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Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Indonesian fishing communities find balance between biodiversity and development

Indonesian fishing communities find balance between biodiversity and development

Feb. 7, 2013 — Fishing communities living on the islands of Indonesia's Karimunjawa National Park have found an important balance, improving their social well-being while reducing their reliance on marine biodiversity, according to the Wildlife Conservation Society and the University of Western Australia.

Over the past 5 years, the Government of Indonesia has turned Karimunjawa National Park -- a marine paradise of turquoise seas and mangrove-ringed islands in the Java Sea just south of Borneo -- into a model of co-management for the country, largely by increasing community participation in park governance and providing economic incentives such as the development of ecotourism and business enterprises to reduce fishing pressures.

The study now appears in the online version of Marine Policy. The authors include: Stuart J. Campbell, Tasrif Kartawijaya, Irfan Yulianto, and Rian Prasetia of the Wildlife Conservation Society; and Julian Clifton of the University of Western Australia.

"Community involvement in the management of fisheries in Karimunjawa has had a significant impact on improving the sustainability of these resources," said Dr. Stuart Campbell, lead author on the paper. "One outcome has been the stabilization of reef fish biomass in some areas since the zoning regulations have taken effect. Another important outcome has been the improved socioeconomics and political power of participant communities, the key to any successful endeavor in sustainable development."

Karimunjawa National Park covers some 1,100 square kilometers of sea surrounding a total of 27 islands with a resident population of 9,000 people. The protected area was among the first in Indonesia to be recognized as critical for the conservation of the region's marine biodiversity. The coastal reef systems provide numerous fish species with spawning aggregation sites, important for the long-term conservation of commercially valuable species. The islands contained in the park provide valuable nesting sites for both sea turtles and seabirds.

In 2006, a study by WCS and others revealed that Karimunjawa's natural resources were under threat from overfishing, with the park's coral reefs and fish biomass in poorer condition than marine protected areas where community and traditional management systems were in place.

Since that time, the Karimunjawa National Park Authority has increased community participation in the management of Karimunjawa's natural resources. Villages now have institutions to address and resolve stakeholder conflicts. Incentives provided to communities have promoted awareness of and support for fishing regulations (which include closures to protect spawning fish sites) and gear restrictions designed and implemented by community members themselves.

The economic incentives of the new plan have decreased dependency on the park's natural resources, and the incorporation of user-rights by coastal communities into spatial planning helps eliminate unsustainable, destructive fishing. Most importantly, the communities and government officials work in tandem to enforce the rules of the park, prohibiting banned gear and catching and prosecuting fishers who illegally fish in the park.

"This co-management model is ideal for both marine conservation and local empowerment," said Dr. Caleb McClennen, Director of WCS's Marine Program. "The current plan's economic, legal, and participatory incentives have created a self-perpetuating system of exclusive access rights for local communities, who in turn support and enforce the protected area's policies and regulations."

This study was generously supported by The David and Lucile Packard Foundation.

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Sunday, February 10, 2013

Predictions of the human cost of climate change

Predictions of the human cost of climate change

Feb. 8, 2013 — A new book, "Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change," predicts a grim future for billions of people in this century. It is a factual account of a staggering human toll, based on hard data. Author Andrew Guzman, an authority on international law and economics, is a professor and associate dean at UC Berkeley School of Law.

Guzman has studied intractable economic problems, such as poverty, recessions, and trade wars. But, in recent years, one problem loomed larger than all the rest: climate change. It became impossible to fathom the economic impact of state actions without including global warming in the equation.

"Climate change is the most important problem facing the international community in the 21st century," Guzman said. "It's a problem that no country alone can solve, but a solution is imperative."

Countless books exist on the scientific aspects of climate change, but not one on why people should care, said Guzman. So he decided to write for a popular audience, to engage them, to capture their imaginations in a way that would communicate the depth of the problem.

Guzman adopted the predictions of scientists who expect a minimum warming of two degrees Celcius. But even such a modest calculation will mean unprecedented migrations, flooding, famine, and war. It will decimate infrastructures we take for granted, crippling roadways, sewers, and irrigation systems. Social services we rely on (sanitation, transportation, heath care) will cease working normally, and humans will find themselves competing for ever more scarce resources.

"Climate change is going to damage the very foundations upon which we've built our civilization. I don't think people understand how pervasive this problem is," Guzman said.

Examples of the impact of climate change include:

• Flooding and forced migration will push citizens to crowded cities or refugee camps, creating ripe conditions for the spread of infectious diseases. It could lead to a global pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 3 percent of the world's population. In the U.S. today, that would mean nine-ten million deaths.

• California's Sierra Snowpack, its most important water source, will have shrunk by a third by 2050. No plan exists for how the state will find enough water for its projected 50 million residents.

• Rising seas will displace populations, ruin farmland, and destroy infrastructure. Bangladesh alone will lose 17 percent of its land mass, the equivalent of the U.S. losing Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and every inch of land to the East.

• Rainfall-dependent crop production in Nigeria may fall by 50 percent. Social chaos and the fight over dwindling oil resources could lead to the creation of a terrorist breeding ground.

• Water flow to the Indus River could drop off by 35 percent, as glaciers melt. India and Pakistan, which have had 4 wars since the 1940s, will have to share this shrinking resource. At issue is life and death for tens of millions on both sides of the border -- and both countries have nuclear weapons.

Guzman acknowledges that it is tempting to ignore the problem or deny its very existence. The harsh reality, however, is that we have to do something now to stem a full-blown disaster in our lifetime. One of the biggest hurdles: political opposition.

"Solving this problem is not going to be free. But as long as politicians are punished for imposing economic costs now in exchange for larger economic gains later, it will be an impossible problem to solve," he said.

In fact, the world's largest emitters of the greenhouse gases (GHG) that cause global warming -- the U.S., the E.U., China, India, and Brazil -- have failed to come to a substantive agreement to reduce carbon output. Carbon dioxide is one of the most damaging of the GHG emissions. Guzman is convinced that U.S. will balk at signing any international accord until its people demand it.

"People have to accept the fact that, as with social security, public education, or military expenditures, we have to pay now for benefits later," he said.

As an economist, Guzman suggests a simple policy solution for the United States: a carbon tax. Taxing carbon up the supply chain as far as possible would raise the price of fossil fuels -- and encourage the development of alternative energy.

Guzman isn't promoting one particular solution; he says a Cap-and-Trade program to regulate GHG emissions could be just as viable. Most important is that we take action. Raise the price of carbon sufficiently to keep the planet from overheating and "prevent human tragedy on a scale the world has never seen." It's a scenario that haunts him daily.

"I'm terrified for my children -- for everybody's children," he said. "The world they are going to inhabit when they're my age in 2050 is not a pretty place. If I have grandchildren, it'll be even worse. One of the features of this problem, which is chilling, is that if you just decide to live with it, it doesn't stabilize. It gets worse and worse with every passing year or decade that we fail to act."

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by University of California, Berkeley, School of Law.
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Thursday, February 7, 2013

Polar bear researchers urge governments to act now and save the species

Polar bear researchers urge governments to act now and save the species

Feb. 4, 2013 — A University of Alberta polar bear researcher and 11 international co-authors are urging governments to start planning for rapid Arctic ecosystem change to deal with a climate change catastrophe for the animals.

U of A professor Andrew Derocher co-wrote a policy perspective urging governments with polar bear populations to accept that just one unexpected jump in Arctic warming trends could send some polar bear populations into a precipitous decline.

"It's a fact that early sea ice breakup, late ice freeze-up and the overall reduction in ice pack are taking their toll," said Derocher. "We want governments to be ready with conservation and management plans for polar bears when a worst-case climate change scenario happens."

The effects of climate change on polar bears are clear from both observational and modelling studies in many areas where the bears are found. Earlier studies by Derocher and his colleagues show that one very bad ice year could leave hundreds of Hudson Bay polar bears stranded on land for an extended period. "Such an event could erase half of a population in a single year," Derocher noted.

"The management options for northern communities like Churchill would range from doing nothing, to feeding the bears, moving them somewhere else or euthanizing them," said Derocher.

The concerned researchers say they're not telling governments what to do. But they want policy makers and wildlife managers to start planning for both the predicted escalation of Arctic warming and for an off-the-charts, worst-case scenario.

"You're going to make better decisions if you have time to think about it in advance; it's a no-brainer," said Derocher, adding that "consultation with northern residents takes time and the worst time to ask for input is during a crisis."

The researchers say the options for polar bear management include what Derocher calls a "wild bear park model" -- feeding and releasing the bears when freeze-ups allow the animals to get to their hunting grounds. But the paper reports that the cost could run into the millions and could have ramifications for the animals' long-term behaviour.

The authors of the paper say governments should be aware of the fallout from climate change, and human safety in the North is going to be an increasing challenge.

"Around the world, polar bears are an iconic symbol, so any tragedy would produce massive attention," said Derocher. "If the warming trend around Hudson Bay took an upward spike, the population of 900 to 1,000 bears in western Hudson Bay would be on the line, so there has to be a plan."

The paper, titled "Rapid ecosystem change and polar bear conservation," was published online as an accepted article Jan. 25 in the journal Conservation Letters.

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by University of Alberta. The original article was written by Brian Murphy.
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Birds in Asia may need a hand to weather climate change

Birds in Asia may need a hand to weather climate change

Feb. 4, 2013 — Birds in Asia may need a helping hand to adapt to climate change, according to scientists.

A new study led by Durham University and BirdLife International, shows that many bird species are likely to suffer under future climate change, and will require enhanced protection of important sites, better management of the wider countryside, and in some of the most extreme cases may need to be physically moved to climatically suitable areas to help them survive.

The priority, the researchers say, is for stronger protection and effective management of networks of important sites for conservation which currently support priority species and could offer new habitat for birds forced to shift their distribution in future.

The research, published in the journal Global Change Biology, examined the potential future distributions of suitable climate within conservation sites (Important Bird Areas) for 370 Asian bird species of conservation concern across the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong regions.

According to the scientists, the findings demonstrate how climate change could affect birdlife and conservation policy across the globe. The researchers say that adapting the way that conservation sites are managed, and facilitating the movement of species to suitable areas, will be critical to future conservation.

Projections show that at least 45% and possibly up to 88% of the 370 species studied will experience declines in suitable climate, leading to changing species composition at individual sites.

The study considered almost 500 scenarios of each bird species' response to future climate change and showed, for the first time, that despite uncertainty in future climate projections, it was extremely likely that these changes in bird communities would occur. However, the site network as a whole is still likely to retain suitable climate for all species in future, meaning that current conservation efforts should be strengthened, but also adapted.

Co-lead author, Dr Robert Bagchi, a Research Fellow at the ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich, who conducted the analysis while at Durham University, said: "It is striking that despite big differences among these scenarios, they agree on the final outcome. Even under the least extreme scenarios of climate change, most species we examined will have to shift their ranges in order to find suitable areas in the future."

Co-lead author, Dr Stephen Willis, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, said: "As climate changes, we may have to assist birds to move to more suitable locations to help them survive. Although many birds will adjust their distributions, and will find new habitats with suitable climate, we need to manage the countryside to help them disperse, or even relocate birds in the most extreme cases.

"We expect there to be 24 times as many 'losers' as 'winners' in terms of bird species losing or gaining habitat in the future."

The researchers explored climate change impacts on birds in the biodiversity hotspots of the Eastern Himalaya and the Lower Mekong. They then forecasted the likelihood of the IBA (Important Bird Area) network to maintain suitable climate for species of conservation concern.

Co-author, Dr Stuart Butchart, Head of Science at BirdLife International, said: "Overall, while these important sites will continue to sustain bird species of conservation concern, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for.

"We therefore need to adapt our conservation management. The good news, however, is that protecting natural habitats benefits people too, helping communities to adapt to climate change. Healthy ecosystems enhance resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change and reduce the vulnerability of people."

The results show that IBAs in the Lower Mekong region were affected more negatively than those in the Eastern Himalaya. Many parts of these regions will experience significant turnover of bird species (the rate of birds newly colonising or becoming locally extinct) over time.
The regions studied by the research team include the countries of, Bhutan, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, as well as parts of Nepal and India.

The study draws upon the work of thousands of experts and organisations, in particular the Partners that form BirdLife International, who contributed to defining species of conservation concern (through the IUCN Red List), mapping their distributions, and identifying Important Bird Areas. The work was funded by a MacArthur Foundation grant to BirdLife International and Dr Willis at Durham University.

The research was led by Durham University and BirdLife International (including BirdLife International in Indochina) with research partners including Bird Conservation Nepal, Bombay Natural History Society and Conservation International.

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Saturday, February 2, 2013

Deforestation triggers carbon collapse of tropical peatlands

Deforestation triggers carbon collapse of tropical peatlands

Jan. 30, 2013 — Deforested tropical peatlands are haemorrhaging carbon from deep within their peat soils, with consequences for the release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, according to new research by The Open University and partners, published January 31 in Nature.

Tropical peatlands, with their high water tables and low decomposition rates, form vast stores of organic carbon tens of metres thick. Most of it is found in Indonesia, where the natural swamp forests (also home to endangered animal species such as orangutans) are increasingly being destroyed by deforestation, drainage and fire, to make way for agriculture, in particular oil palm for biofuels and food.

Dr Sam Moore, lead author of the study and former Open University PhD student, explained: “We measured carbon losses in channels draining intact and deforested peatlands, and found it is 50 per cent higher from deforested swamps, compared to intact swamps. Dissolved organic carbon released from intact swamps mainly comes from fresh plant material, but carbon from the deforested swamps is much older – centuries to millennia – and comes from deep within the peat column.”

Deforestation of Asian peat swamps is an important source of carbon dioxide emissions globally and its emission may be larger than previously thought. Carbon dating shows that the additional carbon lost from deforested swamps comes from peat which had been securely stored for thousands of years. Carbon lost from the drainage systems of deforested and drained peatlands is often not considered in ecosystem exchange carbon budgets, but the research team found it increased the estimated total carbon loss by 22 per cent.

Changes in the water cycle seem to be the principal driver of this increase in carbon loss. Much of the water falling as rain would normally leave the ecosystem through transpiration in vegetation, but deforestation forces it to leave through the peat, where it dissolves fossil carbon on its way.

Dr Vincent Gauci, Senior Lecturer in Earth Systems and Ecosystem Science at The Open University, and corresponding author said: “Essentially, ancient carbon is being dissolved out of Asian peatlands as they are increasingly being turned over to agriculture to meet global demands for food and biofuels. This has led to a large increase in carbon loss from Southeast Asian rivers draining peatland ecosystems - up by 32 per cent over the last 20 years, which is more than half the entire annual carbon loss from all European peatlands. The destruction of the Asian peat swamps is a globally significant environmental disaster, but unlike deforestation of the Amazon, few people know that it is happening”.

The authors concluded that their results increase the urgency for protecting these ecosystems from ongoing destruction for oil palm and other uses.

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