Earth sunblock only needed if planet warms easily

Earth sunblock only needed if planet warms easily

ScienceDaily (Oct. 11, 2012) — An increasing number of scientists are studying ways to temporarily reduce the amount of sunlight reaching Earth to potentially stave off some of the worst effects of climate change. Because these sunlight reduction methods would only temporarily reduce temperatures, do nothing for the health of the oceans and affect different regions unevenly, researchers do not see it as a permanent fix. Most theoretical studies have examined this strategy by itself, in the absence of looking at simultaneous attempts to reduce emissions.

Now, a new computer analysis of future climate change that considers emissions reductions together with sunlight reduction shows that such drastic steps to cool Earth would only be necessary if the planet heats up easily with added greenhouse gases. The analysis, reported in the journal Climatic Change, might help future policymakers plan for a changing climate.
The study by researchers at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory explored sunlight reduction methods, or solar radiation management, in a computer model that followed emissions' effect on climate. The analysis shows there is a fundamental connection between the need for emissions reductions and the potential need for some sort of solar dimming.

"It's a what-if scenario analysis," said Steven Smith with the Joint Global Change Research Institute in College Park, Md,, a joint venture between PNNL and the University of Maryland. "The conditions under which policymakers might want to manage the amount of sun reaching earth depends on how sensitive the climate is to atmospheric greenhouse gases, and we just don't know that yet."

The analysis started with computer-based virtual worlds, or scenarios, that describe different potential pathways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which limits the amount of heat in Earth system due to greenhouse gas accumulation. The researchers combined these scenarios with solar radiation management, a type of geoengineering method that might include shading Earth from the sun's heat by either brightening clouds, mimicking the atmospheric cooling from volcanic eruptions or putting mirrors in space.

"Solar radiation management doesn't eliminate the need to reduce emissions. We do not want to dim sunlight over the long term -- that doesn't address the root cause of the problem and might also have negative regional effects. This study shows that the same conditions that would call for solar radiation management also require substantial emission reductions in order to meet the climate goals set by the world community," said Smith.

How much sun blocking might be needed depends on an uncertain factor called climate sensitivity. Much like beachgoers in the summer, Earth might be very sensitive to carbon dioxide, like someone who burns easily and constantly slathers on the sunscreen, or not, like someone who can get away with SPF 5 or 10.

Scientists measure climate sensitivity by how many degrees the atmosphere warms up if the concentration of carbon dioxide doubles. Smith said if the climate has a medium sensitivity of about 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) per doubling of carbon dioxide, "it's less likely we'd need solar radiation management at all. We'd have time to stabilize the climate if we get going on reducing emissions. But if it's highly sensitive, say 4.5 degrees Celsius (8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) per doubling, we're going to need to use solar radiation management if we want to limit temperature changes."
According to NOAA's August report, Earth's temperature has already risen about 0.62 degrees Celsius (1.12 degrees Fahrenheit) since the beginning of the 20th century as the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has grown from 290 parts per million to 379 parts per million.

But the atmosphere hasn't reached equilibrium yet -- even if humans stopped putting more carbon dioxide into the air, the climate would still continue to change for a while longer. Scientists do not know what temperature Earth will reach at equilibrium, because they don't know how sensitive the planet is to greenhouse gases.

Further, the study showed that, when coupled with emission reductions, the amount of solar radiation management needed could be far less than the amount generally considered by researchers so far.

"Much of the current research has examined solar radiation management that is used as the sole means of offsetting a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. What we showed is that when coupled with emissions reductions, only a fraction of that amount of 'solar dimming' will be needed. This means that potential adverse impacts would be that much lower," said Smith. "This is all still in the research phase. We do not know enough about the impacts of potential solar radiation management technologies to use them at this time."

The study will also help decision-makers evaluate solar reduction technologies side-by-side, if it comes to that. Smith and his coauthor, PNNL atmospheric scientist and Laboratory Fellow Phil Rasch, devised a metric to quantify how much solar radiation management will be needed to keep warming under a particular temperature change threshold. Called degree-years, this metric can be used to evaluate the need for potential sunlight dimming technologies.

Whether such technologies will be needed at all, time will tell.
This work was supported by the non-profit Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research.

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LOVING THE SILENT TEARS ~ NEW MUSICAL

Hi one and all,

We are taking some time off from all things to do with the environment and take a breath of fresh air (no pun intended) this week and suss out what's in the news!  

  

 Apparently, publicity for a new musical : 

LOVING THE SILENT TEARS is making its rounds all over the globe right now. 

For music and theatre lovers, the musical promises some of the best and talented composers,  artistes and performers who are all Grammy award winners in their own right. 

The red carpet premiere of Loving the Silent Tears: A New Musical is anticipated as one of the most star-studded, spectacular year-end events, to be held on  Saturday, October 27  at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles. 

Jody Watley

John Secada

The first of its kind in theatre history, Loving the Silent Tears will take the audience on an elevating journey across six continents and 16 countries, to tell a compelling story about humanity’s search for inner peace and happiness. 

The musical will also star 

Siavash Shams

2-time Grammy-winning artist Jon Secada, Grammy-winning icon Jody Watley, and Broadway stars: Tony winner Debbie Gravitte, Tony winner Kiril Kulish, Emmy winner and Tony nominee Liz Callaway, and Tony nominee Patti Cohenour.

Debbie Gravite

They will be joined by Grammy-winning
reggae legends Black Uhuru, Arab singer 
Camellia Abou-Odah, Italian tenor 
Mark Janicello, Korean pop star Brian Joo, 
award-winning Israeli singer Liel Kolet, 
Irish soprano Katie McMahon, Korean singer 
Heather Park, award-winning Brazilian singer 
Fabiana Passoni, and Persian superstar Siavash Shams. 

Black Uhuru

This soon-to-be-staged spectacular evening of great music and dancing will be enlightening experience for the appreciative audience as it is inspired by a poetry anthology titled Silent Tears, written years ago by world-renowned spiritual teacher, humanitarian and artist Supreme Master Ching Hai.  

Liel Kolet

Award-winning playwright Cynthia Ferrell noted, “What interested me most in Loving the Silent Tears honestly was the poetry. The poetry is so beautiful and the message of the poetry, it’s so consistent throughout the piece, and the nuances of it are gorgeous and it’s just so inspiring. It just makes you come to the project with a happy heart.”

Brian Joo

Taking a unique approach, multiple eminent 
composers have come together to set Supreme Master
Ching Hai's soulful verses to soaring melodies: 
6-time Grammy winner and 2-time Oscar nominee 
Jorge Calandrelli (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), 2-time 
Oscar winner Al Kasha (The Poseidon Adventure), Emmy winner Doug Katsaros (Footloose), 2-time Grammy winner and Oscar nominee Henry Krieger (Dreamgirls), Tony and Emmy winner Don Pippin (Oliver!), Grammy winner Nan Schwartz (Harry Potter), and Oscar and 2-time Grammy winner David Shire (Saturday Night Fever). With the sheer volume of brilliant musical minds so generously pouring their creativity into the score, it’s evident that music lovers are in for a treat. 

Liz Callaway

Jon Secada will also be debuting a song that he
composed for the musical, based on 
Supreme Master Ching Hai’s poetry. He said, 
“I think the audience will find listening to the lyrics 
of the songs, which are from Supreme Master 
Ching Hai's poems, a transformative 
and enlightening experience.”

Mark Janicello

Platinum Chinese pop singer, the versatile Kay Tse 
(Hong Kong's songwriter, model and actress)-who
is honored with Hong Kong's prestigious "Media Award 
-Performer" and praised as the "Grassroots
Singing Queen" will be one of the stars that will 
dazzle the audience with her repertoire in her very 
first theater debut at the Musical.

Camellia Abou Odah

With a superb cast and creative team, 
beautiful poetry as lyrics, and accompaniment 
by a 30-plus member dancing ensemble and 
a live orchestra, Loving the Silent Tears 
will be an unprecedented show of 
grand proportions and five-star production value.

The evening will commemorate the 19th anniversary 

Fabiana Passoni

of Supreme Master Ching Hai Day honoring 
the values of philanthropy and peace. 
A pre-show art exhibition at the venue 
will feature Supreme Master Ching Hai’s 
uplifting creative works, with free admittance for all.

Katie_McMahon

Loving the Silent Tears will be a 
one-time extraordinary event that will inspire 
audiences of all backgrounds. So don’t miss it – 
and for the rest of us who can't make it to LA 
and  share the meaningful experience of a life-time, 
we can still talk about it with friends and family!

For more information, please visit: SilentTearsMusical.com

Facebook: facebook.com/SilentTearsMusical

Twitter: twitter.com/LoveSilentTears

LOVING THE SILENT TEARS

Saturday, October 27, 2012

2pm: Art Exhibit

3pm: Red Carpet Arrivals

4pm: Show

Shrine Auditorium
665 West Jefferson Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90007

Tickets ($45 / $55 / $75) are on sale at:

SilentTearsMusical.com | 626-444-4424

Past tropical climate change linked to ocean circulation

Past tropical climate change linked to ocean circulation

ScienceDaily (Aug. 23, 2012) — A new record of past temperature change in the tropical Atlantic Ocean's subsurface provides clues as to why Earth's climate is so sensitive to ocean circulation patterns, according to climate scientists at Texas A&M University.

Geological oceanographer Matthew Schmidt and two of his graduate students teamed up with Ping Chang, a physical oceanographer and climate modeler, to help uncover an important climate connection between the tropics and the high latitude North Atlantic. Their new findings are in the current issue of PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences).

The researchers used geochemical clues in fossils called foraminifera, tiny sea creatures with a hard shell, collected from a sediment core located off the northern coast of Venezuela, to generate a 22,000-year record of past ocean temperature and salinity changes in the upper 1,500 feet of water in the western tropical Atlantic. They also conducted global climate model simulations under the past climate condition to interpret this new observational record in the context of changes in the strength of the global ocean conveyor-belt circulation.

"What we found was that subsurface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic rapidly warmed during cold periods in Earth's past," Schmidt explains.

"Together with our new modeling experiments, we think this is evidence that when the global conveyor slowed down during cold periods in the past, warm subsurface waters that are normally trapped in the subtropical North Atlantic flowed southward and rapidly warmed the deep tropics. When the tropics warmed, it altered climate patterns around the globe."

He notes that as an example, if ocean temperatures were to warm along the west coast of Africa, the monsoon rainfall in that region would be dramatically reduced, affecting millions of people living in sub-Saharan Africa. The researchers also point out that the southward flow of ocean heat during cold periods in the North Atlantic also causes the band of rainfall in the tropics known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone to migrate southward, resulting in much drier conditions in northern South American countries and a wetter South Atlantic.

"Evidence is mounting that the Earth's climate system has sensitive triggers that can cause abrupt and dramatic shifts in global climate," Schmidt said.

"What we found in our subsurface reconstruction was that the onset of warmer temperatures, thought to reflect the opening of this 'gateway' mechanism, occurred in less than a few centuries. It also tells us that it might be a good idea to monitor subsurface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic to assess how the strength of the ocean conveyor might be changing over the next few decades as Earth's climate continues to warm."

"One way to prepare for future climate change is to increase our understanding of how it has operated in the recent past."

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Constraining world trade is unlikely to help the climate, study finds

Constraining world trade is unlikely to help the climate, study finds

ScienceDaily (Sep. 23, 2012) — From rubber dinghies to television sets: the emissions of greenhouse gases in countries like China are to a significant extent caused by the production of goods that are exported to Germany or the United States. But this doesn't necessarily mean that Western countries have relocated their emission-intensive industries and hence escape regulation for climate protection. This is shown in a study appearing in Nature Climate Change this week.

Instead, researchers were able to pin down a number of factors explaining the pronounced imbalances between emission importers and exporters, the US current account deficit being one of them. Their conclusion: interventions in world trade, like CO₂ tariffs, would probably have only a small impact on global emissions.

Almost half of the CO₂ transfers into the US are caused by the American trade deficit
"For the first time, we have now broken down the known emission transfers into their components," Jakob says. The economic analysis is based on an evaluation of estimates that were determined by other researchers in earlier studies. "We can show that of the CO₂ flowing into the US in form of imported goods, almost 50 per cent are due to the American trade deficit alone," Jakob explains. The US emits less CO₂ in the production of its exports than is contained in its imports, simply because it imports more than it exports. "And only about 20 per cent of CO₂ transfers from China into the US can be traced back to the fact that China is in effect relatively more specialized in the production of dirty goods," Jakob says. But this is the only driver of emission transfers on which the currently controversially discussed climate tariffs could take effect.

Without world trade, the emission of greenhouse gases in countries like China could potentially be even higher than today, according to the study. Western countries often export goods like machines that need a lot of energy in the production process. Usually, this energy stems from comparatively clean production processes. On the other hand, China produces a lot of export goods like toys, whose production needs relatively little energy, but stems from emission-intensive coal power plants. If China with its fossil energy mix had to produce more energy-intensive goods itself instead of importing them, emissions would increase. "In the end, interventions in world trade could do more harm than good," says co-author Robert Marschinski from PIK and Technische Universität Berlin.

"The crucial question is how clean or how dirty national energy production is in each case"
Crucial for CO₂ transfers is not only world trade, but also the question of how clean or dirty national energy production is in each case," Marschinski emphasizes. To look only at CO₂ transfers could be misleading. If for instance the European Union were to adopt new low emission production metho

"To really justify trade-policy interventions like the much discussed CO₂ tariffs, further analysis would be needed -- the observed CO₂ transfers alone are not enough as a basis," Marschinski explains. "Such measures cannot replace what it really takes: more international cooperation." Binding global climate targets could give incentives for investors to promote low-emission technologies. Innovations in efficiency could get financial support, and regional emission trading systems could be linked with each other, Marschinski says. "All this could help to achieve climate protection targets in an economically reasonable way."

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Dioxin causes disease and reproductive problems across generations, study finds

Dioxin causes disease and reproductive problems across generations, study finds

ScienceDaily (Sep. 26, 2012) — Since the 1960s, when the defoliant Agent Orange was widely used in Vietnam, military, industry and environmental groups have debated the toxicity of one of its ingredients, the chemical dioxin, and how it should be regulated.

But even if all the dioxin were eliminated from the planet, Washington State University researchers say its legacy would live on in the way it turns genes on and off in the descendants of people exposed over the past half century.

Writing in the journal PLoS ONE, biologist Michael Skinner and members of his lab say dioxin administered to pregnant rats resulted in a variety of reproductive problems and disease in subsequent generations. The first generation of rats had prostate disease, polycystic ovarian disease and fewer ovarian follicles, the structures that contain eggs. To the surprise of Skinner and his colleagues, the third generation had even more dramatic incidences of ovarian disease and, in males, kidney disease.

"Therefore, it is not just the individuals exposed, but potentially the great-grandchildren that may experience increased adult-onset disease susceptibility," says Skinner

Skinner is a professor of reproductive biology and environmental epigenetics -- the process in which environmental factors affect how genes are turned on and off in the offspring of an exposed animal, even though its DNA sequences remain unchanged. In this year alone, Skinner and colleagues have published studies finding epigenetic diseases promoted by jet fuel and other hydrocarbon mixtures, plastics, pesticides and fungicides, as well as dioxin.

The field of epigenetics opens new ground in the study of how diseases and reproductive problems develop. While toxicologists generally focus on animals exposed to a compound, work in Skinner's lab further demonstrates that diseases can also stem from older, ancestral exposures that are then mediated through epigenetic changes in sperm.

This latest study was funded by the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. Skinner designed the study; the research was done by Assistant Research Professor Mohan Manikkam, Research Technician Rebecca Tracey and Post-doctoral Researcher Carlos Guerrero-Bosagna.

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Note; Click on title of article for more related links.

 

Climate change to fuel northern spread of avian malaria: Malaria already found in birds in Alaska

Climate change to fuel northern spread of avian malaria: Malaria already found in birds in Alaska

ScienceDaily (Sep. 19, 2012) — Malaria has been found in birds in parts of Alaska, and global climate change will drive it even farther north, according to a new study published September 19 in the journal PLoS ONE.

The spread could prove devastating to arctic bird species that have never encountered the disease and thus have no resistance to it, said San Francisco State University Associate Professor of Biology Ravinder Sehgal, one of the study's co-authors. It may also help scientists understand the effects of climate change on the spread of human malaria, which is caused by a similar parasite.

Researchers examined blood samples from birds collected at four sites of varying latitude, with Anchorage as a southern point, Denali and Fairbanks as middle points and Coldfoot as a northern point, roughly 600 miles north of Anchorage. They found infected birds in Anchorage and Fairbanks but not in Coldfoot.

Using satellite imagery and other data, researchers were able to predict how environments will change due to global warming -- and where malaria parasites will be able to survive in the future. They found that by 2080, the disease will have spread north to Coldfoot and beyond.

"Right now, there's no avian malaria above latitude 64 degrees, but in the future, with global warming, that will certainly change," Sehgal said. The northerly spread is alarming, he added, because there are species in the North American arctic that have never been exposed to the disease and may be highly susceptible to it.

"For example, penguins in zoos die when they get malaria, because far southern birds have not been exposed to malaria and thus have not developed any resistance to it," he said. "There are birds in the north, such as snowy owls or gyrfalcons, that could experience the same thing."

The study's lead author is Claire Loiseau, a former postdoctoral fellow in Sehgal's laboratory at SF State. Ryan Harrigan, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of California, Los Angeles, provided data modeling for the project. The research was funded by grants from the AXA Foundation and National Geographic.

Researchers are still unsure how the disease is being spread in Alaska and are currently collecting additional data to determine which mosquito species are transmitting the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria.

The data may also indicate if and how malaria in humans will spread northward. Modern medicine makes it difficult to track the natural spread of the disease, Sehgal said, but monitoring birds may provide clues as to how global climate change may effect the spread of human malaria.

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U.S. underestimates costs of carbon pollution and climate change

U.S. underestimates costs of carbon pollution and climate change

ScienceDaily (Sep. 17, 2012) — Model used by government all but ignores economic damages that climate change will inflict on future generations.

The U.S. federal government is significantly underestimating the costs of carbon pollution because it is using a faulty analytical model, according to a new study published in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences.

A more appropriate accounting of costs would pave the way to cleaner, more economically efficient sources of power generation, the study found.

"This is a wake-up call for America to start aggressively investing in low carbon sources of energy. The very real economic benefits will accrue quickly and increase over time," said Dr. Laurie Johnson, chief economist in the climate and clean air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
"With approximately 40 percent of all carbon emissions in the U.S. coming from power plants, the economic advantages of clean electricity sources are significant," she said.

Johnson, who co-authored the study (with Chris Hope of Judge Business School, University of Cambridge) "The Social Cost of Carbon in U.S. Regulatory Impact Analyses," said the model used by the government is incomplete because it all but ignores the economic damages that climate change will inflict on future generations. That model was the product of an interagency task force composed of six cabinet agencies and six executive branch offices.

The real benefits of carbon reduction range from 2.6 to more than 12 times higher than the government's estimate.

"It turns out that the price we now pay for energy is much higher than what shows up on our electric bills or the tab at the gas pump," Johnson said.

Without properly accounting for pollution costs, natural gas appears to be the cheapest generation option for new power plants. However, the revised estimates show that, after incorporating the economic costs of carbon and other pollutants from fossil fuel generation, building new generation using wind and solar power would be more cost effective than either natural gas or coal.

Supplementary analysis by one of the authors shows even greater gains from replacing existing coal plants with new wind and solar photovoltaic, or with new fossil fuel generation that has carbon capture and storage technology.

The country's existing coal fleet accounts for approximately 36 percent of all U.S. CO2 emissions and is responsible for virtually all power-sector sulfur dioxide emissions, which cause thousands of premature deaths every year, respiratory problems, heart disease, and a number of ecosystem damages.

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